Europe cut the gas off itself — and the shock came from Iran — updates

clarification: Sharpened 4 prediction labels to state an explicit, measurable resolution criterion and date.

2026-07-21T01:57:23+02:00

An estimate that cannot resolve can never enter the public track record. These were tracked without a criterion by which they could be scored Confirmed, Incorrect or Partially Correct; the underlying estimates and their history are unchanged.

correction: Replaced the invented scenario with sourced reporting — and reversed the direction of the story.

2026-07-15T05:20:00+02:00

This page was written as an illustrative sample to demonstrate the format. It modelled Russia curtailing gas to Europe: flows cut 60%, energy prices spiking 3.1×, a sample metric of 28.3 against 22.1. None of it was sourced, and the real record runs the other way. The EU legislated the end of Russian gas itself (Regulation (EU) 2026/261, pipeline deadline 17 June 2026); German gas producer prices are down 8.0% year-on-year, not up; and the March 2026 energy spike came from the Iran–Middle East conflict, not Moscow. Every figure is now taken from a citation you can follow, and the route flipped from Russia→Europe to Europe→Russia because the acting party changed. The Impact Score fell from 74 to 66: the sourced picture is less acute than the invented one, and we are not going to keep the higher number just because it was already published. (74 → 66)

correction: Lowered confidence on Q2 (Confirmed → Likely) and Q4 (Likely → Uncertain).

2026-07-15T02:21:44+02:00

The simple and full tabs carried separate confidence ratings and had drifted, with the simplified read systematically more confident than the considered one — aimed at the readers least able to discount it. Confidence is now one value per claim, and we took the more cautious of the two.

correction: Removed the claim that 61% of readers agreed with you.

2026-07-15T02:08:24+02:00

The figure was hardcoded and shown identically whether you voted Yes or No — 61% agreeing with each side is 122% of readers. It told everyone the crowd was on their side. There is no vote store yet, so no aggregate is shown at all.

correction: Impact Score corrected.

2026-07-15T02:01:39+02:00

The headline had been typed in by hand and disagreed with its own five dimensions, which average 73.6. It is now computed from them. We could have kept 78 by reverse-engineering weights that produced it — that would have been choosing the answer first and calling it a method. (78 → 74)

correction: Removed every source attribution to a real organization.

2026-07-15T01:49:30+02:00

Figures were presented as sourced from ENTSOG, IEA, Destatis, Eurostat, UNHCR, OFAC and others that were never consulted. The numbers are illustrative estimates and are now labelled as such.