North America is the acting side of two connections on the map — the sanctions chain, and the US–Iran war it is now fighting. Its larger presence is indirect: it is the supplier that replaced Russian gas in Europe, and one of the exporters that absorbed the Hormuz closure — in neither case as an endpoint on the arc. It moves more of this map than it is drawn on.
The US Capitol — where much of this hub’s leverage is written into law.Noclip / Wikimedia Commons · Public domain
STABILITY64
Institutions and the labour market are functioning: unemployment at 4.2% in June 2026 is the lowest in a year, and Vanguard's 9 July outlook calls the labour market 'fundamentally healthy' with the Fed on hold and no recession forecast. Against that, hiring cooled sharply — 57,000 payrolls added, with 74,000 struck off the prior two months in revision — and the country is prosecuting a foreign war in a charged political climate. Scored above trend for the capacity to absorb a shock, not for approval of the government.
ECONOMY60
Positive but decelerating. Inflation is 'uncomfortably above target' with the Fed on hold through 2026 (Vanguard), payroll growth has slowed to 57,000 a month against triple-digit norms, and the June gains carried 74,000 in downward revisions. Not distress — joblessness is low at 4.2% and no recession is projected — but the engine is shifting from hiring to investment, which is a slower one. Just above trend rather than strong.
CONFLICT RISK55
No conflict on North American soil, but the region's lead state is an active combatant abroad: 17 US soldiers and one contractor killed, 548 wounded, and an estimated $113.3 billion spent by June 2026 in a US–Iran war whose ceasefire has since collapsed. Elevated because the war is open-ended and the exit is unclear; held below the ceiling because the fighting is expeditionary, not homeland. Inverted scale — higher means more risk.
Our own considered read. Scored 0–100 against what is normal for this region — 50 is trend, not a global average. Conflict Risk is inverted: higher means more. No source publishes these three numbers; they are our synthesis of the indicators below, which are real and followable. Editorial judgment, and ours to defend. how we score
No trend arrows yet. The figures these replace were placeholders, so there is nothing honest to measure movement against — the previous number was not a worse reading, it was not a reading at all. Trends appear at the next assessment.
