Britain opened to India — but the oil leak was already closing

The UK-India Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement entered into force on 15 July 2026. The UK government's own guidance states the agreement gives 'duty-free access for 99% of Indian exports to the UK from entry into force'. Separately, the Sanctioning Russia Act (S.1241) would raise duties on goods from any country buying Russian energy. Both are real. The relationship between them is where the reporting goes wrong.

The widely-repeated framing — that US senators proposed a 100% tariff aimed at India — does not survive the bill text. S.1241 §17(a) directs that duties be raised 'to a rate of not less than the equivalent of 500 percent ad valorem', and §17(b) applies it to any country that knowingly purchases Russian-origin oil, uranium, gas, petroleum or petrochemical products. India is not named. The bill is also not new; it is the Sanctioning Russia Act of 2025. The 100% figure in circulation refers to executive secondary tariffs, a separate instrument with a separate legal basis. Conflating the two produces a story about India being targeted by Congress that the statute does not support.

The FTA's duty-free access is concrete and dated: it began on 15 July 2026. The refining arbitrage that defined India's position since 2022 is moving the other way. The IEA reports Indian imports of Russian crude fell to 1.1 mb/d in January 2026, the lowest level since November 2022, and attributes the fall directly to EU restrictions on imports of petroleum products derived from Russian crude, which 'prompted key export refineries to look for alternative supplies'. The gain is in goods trade; it is not a gain in the oil trade.

The IEA attributes January's fall to the EU product restrictions, not to any UK or US action. What this analysis cannot establish is the counterfactual: whether Russian barrels displaced from Indian refineries found other buyers at similar discounts, or cleared at a wider one. The tanker data shows the destination shifting; it does not show the price. Anyone claiming this measurably cut Russian revenue is asserting more than the cited evidence carries, and so is anyone claiming it did not.