NEWSNYOUSEE HOW IT RIPPLES
The Pudong skyline of Shanghai seen across the Huangpu River from the Bund
Shanghai's Pudong skyline — the economic centre of gravity of this hub.DvTor8303 / Wikimedia Commons · CC0
Rising tensionREGION HUB

China

The surplus the rest of this map is defending against, and the technology fight's other side. Europe's sovereignty package is aimed here, the sanctions rerouting runs through here, and China acts on the rest of the map more than it is acted upon — which is why the tension is rising rather than resolving.

→ Europe hub→ Indo-Pacific hub
STABILITY60
Governance is not the fragile part here — the state faces no electoral contest and keeps full policy control. The strain is structural and economic: property investment down 18% year-to-date, weak domestic demand, and deflationary pressure a strong export book only partly masks. Above trend for the state's capacity to hold together under stress, marked down because the growth model is visibly straining rather than adjusting.
ECONOMY55
Strong by world standards, below trend by its own. China grew 4.3% year-on-year in Q2 2026 — the weakest quarter since the end of 2022, missing both the ~4.5% consensus and Beijing's target floor — with fixed-asset investment turning negative and retail sales barely positive. Held up by a resilient export machine (shipments up 27% in June and 17.6% across the first half) even through Iran-war shipping disruption, which is the whole character of this actor: it acts on the rest of this map more than it is acted upon. Below trend, not in distress.
CONFLICT RISK54
No active war, but the highest-stakes standoff on the map that is not yet one. Through mid-2026 China sailed its Fujian carrier through the Taiwan Strait and ran blockade-simulation drills, drawing a $25 billion Taiwan supplemental defence budget and first live HIMARS tests in response, while Japan raised defence spending — sustained high tension without a shot fired. Scored near the midpoint: materially above an actor at peace, well below the Middle East's active war. Inverted scale — higher means more risk.

Our own considered read. Scored 0–100 against what is normal for this region — 50 is trend, not a global average. Conflict Risk is inverted: higher means more. No source publishes these three numbers; they are our synthesis of the indicators below, which are real and followable. Editorial judgment, and ours to defend. how we score

No trend arrows yet. The figures these replace were placeholders, so there is nothing honest to measure movement against — the previous number was not a worse reading, it was not a reading at all. Trends appear at the next assessment.

WHAT INFORMED THIS READ
  1. China Q2 2026 GDP Growth Slows to 4.3%, Weakest Since Q4 2022 (ING report) IndexBox / ING · 16 July 2026
  2. China reports 4.3% GDP growth in second quarter, falling short of expectations South China Morning Post · 15 July 2026
  3. Confrontation Over Taiwan — Global Conflict Tracker Council on Foreign Relations · updated July 2026

Influence Meter

6 dimensions of power

The world's manufacturing surplus and the technology fight's other side — strong everywhere except the two axes a rival alliance is built to deny it: energy security and soft power reach beyond its own periphery.

ChinaCHN
76COMPOSITE INFLUENCE
EconomicSTRONGEST AXIS
MILITARYECONOMICDIPLOMATICTECHNOLOGYENERGYSOFT POWER
  • Military82
  • Economic88
  • Diplomatic74
  • Technology85
  • Energy62
  • Soft Power60

Each axis is rated 0–100 against the other actors on this site, not against an absolute — the United States is the ceiling. The composite is a weighted average of the six. No source publishes these ratings; the formula is arithmetic, the numbers going into it are our editorial judgment. how we score

Active connections

Showing all 2 connections

Europe calls it sovereignty — its own numbers say it doubles the price
EconomyTechnologyGeopolitics
Russia ships more to China than ever — and earns less
EconomyGeopoliticsPolitics

What we intend to cover

Editorial intent, not findings. Nothing below has been analysed yet.

  • Whether EU trade defence changes Chinese output or only its routing.
  • Yuan settlement displacing the euro in rerouted Russian trade.
  • Japan and Korea scored individually across the six dimensions.