NEWSNYOUSEE HOW IT RIPPLES
The Tbilisi skyline with the Holy Trinity Cathedral (Sameba) on the hills above the city
Tbilisi, Georgia — the largest capital on the Middle Corridor.lumoplank / Wikimedia Commons · CC0
Rising tensionREGION HUB

Caucasus

Three small states between two seas, carrying pipelines the rest of this map depends on and frozen conflicts none of them have resolved. Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan sit on the Middle Corridor the sanctions rerouting increasingly runs through — the one route east that never touches Russian soil, which is exactly why Russia has never fully let go of the region.

→ Russia hub→ Europe hub
STABILITY50
ECONOMY48
CONFLICT RISK60

Placeholder — not yet a considered read. These three figures were typed to demonstrate the panel, not derived from any assessment of Caucasus. No source publishes them and we have not yet done the work behind them. They stay until the read is actually made. how we score

Who competes here

arena · not an actor

This region is defined by who is competing for the corridor rather than by what it projects on its own. That is precisely why it gets no Influence Score of its own: the interesting number is not the Caucasus's power, it is the gap between the outside powers bidding for the route through it.

Russia62GLOBAL
The incumbent: a military base in Armenia, peacekeepers in Nagorno-Karabakh's aftermath, and the frozen conflicts in Abkhazia and South Ossetia it still recognises as independent. Weakening its grip since 2020, but not letting go.
STRONGEST · ENERGY
Europe (EU)72GLOBAL
The Southern Gas Corridor runs Azerbaijani gas to the EU bypassing Russia entirely, and Brussels has an EU monitoring mission on the Armenia-Azerbaijan border — a stake in the corridor staying open and staying calm.
STRONGEST · SOFT POWER
Iran43GLOBAL
Borders both Armenia and Azerbaijan, has real trade and transit interests, and is wary of any corridor project that would run a Turkic route along its own northern frontier.
STRONGEST · ENERGY

The figures are each actor's global Influence Score, not their weight inside Caucasus — we do not have that number and will not estimate one. What is specific to this region is why each power is here. how we score

Active connections

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What we intend to cover

Editorial intent, not findings. Nothing below has been analysed yet.

  • The Middle Corridor: how much EU–Asia freight can actually bypass Russia through Georgia and Azerbaijan.
  • Whether Armenia's tilt away from Russia survives without a security guarantee to replace it.
  • Azerbaijani gas as the Southern Gas Corridor's ceiling on how far Europe can diversify.